Oscars 2025: 10 Early Best Picture Predictions & Movies That Could Dominate

Summary

• Several movies are potential contenders for the Best Picture award at the 2025 Oscars.
• Impressive casts, directors, and source material make these films strong contenders for recognition.
• Movies releasing Jan-Dec 2024 may impact Oscars.

After the dust has settled following the 2024 Oscars ceremony, critics and audiences are turning their attention to the movies that could be in contention in 12 months. As surprising nominees and winners at the 2024 Oscars proved, predicting the 2025 results so far ahead of time is no easy task. However, even at this stage, it’s already obvious that there will be some serious contenders come awards season.

In a somewhat surprising turn, the Oscars 2024 was dominated by Christopher Nolan’s epic biopic, Oppenheimer. Despite stiff competition for the top prizes from the likes of Poor Things, Killers of the Flower Moon, and Anatomy of a Fall to name just a few, the movie claimed seven separate awards, including Best Picture, Best Actor, and Best Director. The movie’s epic length, timely themes, and powerful performances made it a natural favorite, with several prospective 2025 movies following a similar blueprint. However, at this early stage, many other movies could also be in contention.

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Potential Best Picture 2025 Winners
Movie	Director
Dune: Part Two	Denis Villeneuve
Juror No. 2	Clint Eastwood
Challengers	Luca Guadagnino
Kinds Of Kindness	Yorgos Lanthimos
Anora	Sean Baker
Conclave	Edward Berger
The Nickel Boys	RaMell Ross
Emilia Pérez	Jacques Audiard
Sing Sing	Greg Kwedar
Queer	Luca Guadagnino
The Apprentice	Ali Abbasi
Joker: Folie A Deux	Todd Phillips
Gladiator 2	Ridley Scott
Blitz	Steve McQueen
A Real Pain	Jesse Eisenberg

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15 Dune: Part Two

Release: March 1, 2024

Dune: Part Two PG-13 Where to Watch

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Director Denis Villeneuve Release Date March 1, 2024 Cast Timothee Chalamet , Zendaya , Florence Pugh , Austin Butler , Rebecca Ferguson Runtime 165 Minutes

After an extended delay, Denis Villeneuve’s awe-inspiring Dune sequel missed out on eligibility for the 2024 Oscars. Considering its cultural impact, many felt that this was a missed opportunity. However, following huge critical and commercial success, the movie has already established itself as a firm favorite for the next round of awards, despite releasing long before other competitors.

Concluding the story of Paul Atreides and his transition from outlaw to emperor, the movie expertly weaves epic scope with thoughtful discussion of imperialism, religion, and romance. Villeneuve is already tipped as a Best Director candidate, while the movie will take some beating in a host of technical categories – without even considering its strong Best Picture credentials.

14 Juror No. 2

Release: Unknown

While it’s unclear whether Juror No. 2 will be ready in time for contention at the 2025 Oscars, the film has every chance of making an impact at the ceremony. Directed by Clint Eastwood, who has ceremony pedigree, the movie promises to be a tense legal thriller with an all-star cast. Given how well this combination has worked at the Academy Awards previously, it’s clear that Juror No. 2 might well mark a return to glory for Eastwood.

Nicholas Hoult, Toni Collette, and J.K. Simmons ensure that Juror No. 2 has enough star power to be noticed when awards season comes around. Further, the fact that rumors have swirled since the movie’s announcement that this may be Eastwood’s final project may place extra pressure on the Academy to recognize it. Regardless, however, Juror No. 2 promises to be an exciting addition to Eastwood’s incredible body of work.

13 Challengers

Release: March 2024

Challengers R

Director Luca Guadagnino Release Date April 26, 2024 Cast Zendaya , Josh O’Connor , Mike Faist

One of the most successful movies in early 2024, Challengers has every opportunity to succeed at the 2025 Oscars ceremony. Although it was released outside of the typical awards season, the movie enjoyed great reviews and dominated the cultural conversation, thanks in no small part to the charismatic performances of its three leads. However, while acting accolades may be on the cards, the film itself may also receive some plaudits.

Challengers
is available to buy on Apple TV+.

Directed by Luca Guadagnino, Challengers has Oscars pedigree, thanks to Guadagnino’s nomination for Call Me By Your Name. The movie was also a significant critical hit and offers the kind of intense emotional drama that Oscar-winning movies often explore. Although it may feel less relevant by the time the 2025 ceremony comes around, Challengers is still a possible contender.

12 Kinds Of Kindness

Release: May 2024

Kinds of Kindness (2024)

Director Yorgos Lanthimos Release Date June 21, 2024 Cast Emma Stone , Jesse Plemons , Willem Dafoe , Margaret Qualley , Hong Chau , Joe Alwyn , Mamoudou Athie , Hunter Schafer

After being nominated for Best Picture in 2024, Yorgos Lanthimos has every chance of going one better in 2025 thanks to his latest unorthodox cinematic experience, Kinds of Kindness. Starring Jesse Plemons, the movie has been described as a “triptych fable“, telling three separate stories all centered around the mysterious character R.M.F. Although Kinds of Kindness is unconventional, it may yet prove to be a serious Oscar contender.

Not only have early reviews been broadly positive (with the film sitting at 77% on Rotten Tomatoes at the time of writing), but it has already made an impact on the festival circuit. Jesse Plemons was awarded Best Actor at the Cannes Film Festival, while Lanthimos was nominated for the Palme d’Or. Such accolades suggest Kinds of Kindness will still be in the mix when it’s time for the Academy Awards.

11 Anora

Release: May 2024

Anora (2024)

Director Sean Baker Release Date May 21, 2024 Cast Mikey Madison , Mark Eydelstein , Yuriy Borisov , Karren Karagulian , Vache Tovmasyan Runtime 139 Minutes

Arguably the most anticipated movie to come out of Cannes 2024, Anora is already a frontrunner for the Oscars. An atypical romance that shines a light on the world of sex work, Anora has enjoyed critical acclaim – receiving a 10-minute standing ovation from festival-goers after its premiere. Given this reaction, it’s unsurprising that the movie won the 2024 Palme d’Or.

Anora‘s success at Cannes provides a fascinating insight as far as the Oscars are concerned. The movie is set to be distributed by Neon in the United States, becoming the fifth Palme d’Or winner to do so. Intriguingly, one previous Neon project was 2020 Best Picture winner Parasite – providing a clear precedent for Anora‘s potential success.

10 Conclave

Release: November 2024

Based on the best-selling novel by author Robert Harris, Conclave combines a stacked cast with a gripping story – potentially creating the ideal Best Picture formula. Featuring the likes of Ralph Fiennes, Stanley Tucci, John Lithgow, and Isabella Rossellini, the movie concerns a Papal election and an intriguing mystery. While it’s unclear how loyal the film will be to the source material, Conclave is set to be a dramatic thrill ride.

Conclave
is also directed by Academy Award-winner Edward Berger, whose previous project,
All Quiet On The Western Front
, won the Best International Feature Film award in 2023.

Not only does the talent aligned in front of the camera contain multiple Academy Award nominees, but Conclave is also directed by Academy Award-winner Edward Berger, whose previous project, All Quiet On The Western Front, won the Best International Feature Film award in 2023. This combination, combined with the movie’s November release date, could help Conclave triumph.

9 The Nickel Boys

Release: October 2024

Another adaptation of a much-loved book, The Nickel Boys takes as its inspiration the novel of the same name by Colson Whitehead. Centered on a fictionalized version of a real school, the movie tells the story of a group of young students who find solace in each other, rallying against the harrowing abuse of their teachers. Mixing history with drama, the movie promises to contain many of the elements that often appeal to an Oscars jury.

A major factor in The Nickel Boys potential success is the impact of its source material. The original novel won the Pulitzer Prize for fiction in 2020, highlighting how powerful the movie’s story really is. The fact that it’s directed by RaMell Ross, who was Oscar-nominated for his documentary Hale County, This Morning This Evening means that the film has every chance of being a major contender.

8 Emilia Pérez

Release: May 2024

Emilia Perez (2024)

Director Jacques Audiard Release Date August 28, 2024 Cast Zoe Saldana , Karla Sofía Gascón , Selena Gomez , Adriana Paz , Edgar Ramirez Runtime 130 Minutes

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Winner of the Jury Prize at the Cannes Film Festival, Emilia Pérez is a boundary-pushing but nonetheless plausible contender for Oscars glory. Starring Zoe Saldaña, Karla Sofía Gascon, and Selena Gomez, the movie mixes musical sensibilities with the story of a cartel leader undergoing sex reassignment surgery with the help of a disaffected lawyer. With original songs and virtuoso performances across the board, the movie has quickly established an impressive reputation.

Although its content may in some years have been considered too unconventional for the Oscars, there are other indicators that Emilia Pérez is on track to succeed. Not only was it nominated for a Palme d’Or, but the movie’s combined cast received the Best Actress award as a collective ensemble. With an impressive critical rating of 86% on Rotten Tomatoes at the time of writing, Emilia Pérez has the potential to be a major Academy Award surprise.

7 Sing Sing

Release: July, 2024

Sing Sing (2024)

Director Greg Kwedar Release Date March 8, 2024 Cast Colman Domingo , Paul Raci Runtime 105 Minutes

After debuting at the Toronto International Film Festival in 2023, Sing Sing has established itself as a genuine awards contender by ticking several popular Oscars boxes. The movie is based on the real-life story of the Rehabilitation Through the Arts program at Sing Sing Correctional Facility. Within this context, it uses a combined cast of professional actors and former inmates to recreate the production of an original musical, Breakin’ the Mummy’s Code.

The movie’s unique premise and production, together with extremely positive reviews and an intriguing biographical element, suggests it could be a serious contender for Best Picture in 2025. A July release could potentially hinder its relevance around awards season. However, positive word-of-mouth and a strong box office could likewise ensure that it remains in the frame.

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6 Queer

Release: Late 2024

One of two Luca Guadagnino movies releasing in 2024, Queer has all the attributes to be a major Oscars contender. Not only does Guadagnino himself have history at the awards ceremony (having been nominated for Best Picture for Call Me By Your Name), but the movie boasts an impressive cast, including Danie Craig and Lesley Manville. Coupled with its celebrated source material by William S. Burroughs, and Queer has every likelihood of achieving success.

The movie explores similar themes to Guadagnino’s previous hit, Call Me By Your Name. This suggests that Queer could make a similar impact at the ceremony, given Guadagnino’s track record. The fact that the director has also had earlier 2024 success with Challengers may make Queer even more difficult to stop.

5 The Apprentice

Release: May 2024

The Apprentice (2024) DramaBiography

Director Ali Abbasi Cast Sebastian Stan , Jeremy Strong , Maria Bakalova , Martin Donovan Runtime 120 Minutes

Initially released at the Cannes Film Festival, The Apprentice is perhaps one of the most culturally relevant and sensitive projects of the year. However, come awards season, the movie’s controversial subject may prove to be its greatest strength. Starring Sebastian Stan and Maria Bakalova, the movie will tell the true story of Donald Trump’s early years as a businessman in New York alongside his legal advisor, Roy Cohn.

Like Oppenheimer, The Apprentice is a biographical tale that strikes at the heart of the American story – proving even more pertinent given Trump’s candidacy for President in 2024. The Academy has also shown a recent preference for actors portraying real-life figures, suggesting that The Apprentice may also feature in the acting categories. Its positive early reviews also suggest that it has enough staying power to be an Oscars contender post-Cannes.

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4 Joker: Folie a Deux

Release: October 2024

Joker: Folie a Deux RDrama

Director Todd Phillips Release Date October 4, 2024 Cast Joaquin Phoenix , Lady Gaga , Brendan Gleeson , Zazie Beetz , Catherine Keener , Jacob Lofland , Harry Lawtey

Although the original Joker polarized critics, it was one of the biggest releases of 2019 – securing a Best Actor Oscar for star Joaquin Phoenix. The prospect of Phoenix reprising his role raise the prospect of more high-profile accolades for Joker: Folie a Deux. Beyond this, however, the movie’s daring changes to the original formula could see it become a bigger critical hit.

This bold approach could yet see
Joker: Folie a Deux
become the first musical Best Picture winner since 2003.

The movie will be both a comic book thriller and a musical, making full use of costar Lady Gaga’s vocal talents. This bold approach could yet see Joker: Folie a Deux become the first musical Best Picture winner since 2003. Combined with the obvious acting talent on display and previous franchise Oscars recognition, Joker: Folie a Deux is a major contender.

3 Gladiator 2

Release: November 22, 2024

Gladiator 2

Director Ridley Scott Release Date November 22, 2024 Cast Paul Mescal , Denzel Washington , Connie Nielsen , Derek Jacobi , Joseph Quinn , Fred Hechinger , Pedro Pascal

Considering Ridley Scott’s mixed critical and commercial performance in recent years, Gladiator 2 may not seem like an obvious 2025 Oscars candidate. However, despite the failure of projects like Napoleon, the movie may yet succeed. This is in no small part thanks to the legacy of its illustrious predecessor.

The original Gladiator won five Academy Awards, including Best Picture and Best Actor. This suggests that Scott’s movie does have the potential to be a major contender at the 2025 ceremony. This is especially true, given the involvement of illustrious performers like Paul Mescal and Oscars heavyweights such as Denzel Washington.

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2 Blitz

Release: Unknown

Directed by previous Best Picture winner Steve McQueen, Blitz is a tantalizing historical drama set during the titular German bombing campaign in the Second World War. An impressive cast featuring Saoirse Ronan, Stephen Graham, and Harris Dickinson only adds to the sense of excitement around the project. As far as the Oscars are concerned, however, there’s reason to be bullish about the movie’s chances.

Considering the acclaim that has surrounded McQueen’s previous movies, it’s understandable that Blitz is being touted as a strong awards contender. Even more exciting is that the director’s previous historical drama, 12 Years A Slave, won three Oscars out of nine nominations. This suggests that Blitz may receive recognition in multiple categories.

1 A Real Pain

Release: January 2024

A Real Pain

Director Jesse Eisenberg Release Date January 20, 2024 Cast Jesse Eisenberg , Kieran Culkin , Will Sharpe , jennifer grey , Kurt Egyiawan Runtime 90 Minutes

Acclaimed on release by critics, A Real Pain has been widely heralded as one of the most exciting debuts at the 2024 edition of Sundance. Directed by Jesse Eisenberg and starring Keiran Culkin, the movie tells the story of two misfit relatives traveling through Poland. The movie currently holds an impressive 91% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, highlighting its credentials as an awards contender.

A Real Pain
is set for general release on October 18, 2024.

Culkin’s performance, in particular, has already been identified as a highlight, while the movie’s understated blend of drama and comedy makes it perfect for awards consideration. It’s worth noting that Eisenberg has no previous Oscars recognition as a filmmaker. Nonetheless, A Real Pain is perfectly placed to end that streak.

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